A Terrible, No Good, Awful Night for Barack Obama
One initial point to ponder: if the No-H8 campaign tries to fire up in North Carolina as the No-A1 campaign, people will wonder why they are campaigning against steak sauce. Probably won’t happen. North Carolina did not pass a ban on gay marriage as the media reports. Rather they refused to allow their definition of marriage to be changed. The marriage definition was put into law years ago, but with an onslaught of judicial activists, the voters in North Carolina decided to shut down any further consideration of the issue. The most fascinating bit of it all is that time and time again gay marriage polls quite well in the United States. Time and time again, gay marriage proponents go down to defeat at the actual polls. Said one gay marriage proponent on Twitter last night to me, “It will be a happy day when all hate filled Xians are dead.” Xians is “Christians” in Twitter speak. At first I thought it was a Xenu or Thetans reference. This was a bad night for Barack Obama. Whoever decided to put the Democratic National Convention in North Carolina should be given a lollipop by the GOP for the intense level of comedic schadenfreude we can all now watch. The Democrats will convene in a proudly right to work state whose state Democratic Party is imploding due to a gay sexual harassment scandal, the state itself just voted for marriage by a margin few statewide candidates in North Carolina get, and twenty percent of Democrats voted against Barack Obama in the North Carolina Democratic Primary. On the bright side, North Carolina is not West Virginia where a felon in federal prison in Texas locked up 40% of the vote in the Democratic Primary against Barack Obama . The Chain Gang looks to be as popular as the Change Gang. In Indiana, Rickard Mourdock beat Richard Lugar. Lugar is Barack Obama’s favorite Republican Senator. The Washington, DC Gang of 500 — the political reporters who set the tone for political coverage in America — are still crying in their beer as the sun rises that Indiana’s statewide elected Treasurer beat a Republican incumbent who has never been a threat to the liberal agenda the Gang of 500 agrees with. The truth is that as much as tea party energy gave Richard Mourdock a surge and a platform, two-thirds of Indiana’s county Republican chairmen and a majority of the Indiana GOP State Committee encouraged Mourdock to run. Lugar did not lose for defying the tea party. He lost because he lost touch with Indiana. In West Virginia, a felon in a federal prison in Texas gave Barack Obama a run for his money in the Democratic Primary for President. Seriously! The felon got about 40% of the vote. Joe Manchin, West Virginia’s Democratic Senator would not even tell reporters who he voted for in the primary. Then there’s Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, more Republicans turned out than Democrats for the Democrats’ contested primary. The Democrat who won the right to challenge Scott Walker in the recall was, only a month ago, savaged by the unions and has already spoken up in favor of tax increases. But if that’s not enough, then there’s Europe. Yes folks, Europe. The Greeks have handed 37 year old Alexi Tsipras the right to form a government. He is a radical leftist who wants to abandon the Greek bailout, nationalize the banks, restore all salaries and pensions, and restore collective bargaining. In France, Hollande the socialist won. He wants to renegotiate the austerity measures Europe has never really even implemented. All this means European economic turmoil could be about to rear its ugly head, also plunging the United States further into the economic morass. That will only hurt Barack Obama. Friends, put bluntly, there is a lot of hype and posturing out there in the media on Barack Obama’s behalf. The Gang of 500 is friendly toward him. There are better relations there than with Team Romney. They are more likely to buy into the Obama spin. But spin it is. The reality is the nation, heck even a lot of Democrats, are rejecting Barack Obama.
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A Terrible, No Good, Awful Night for Barack Obama
Editor’s note: This is the next endorsement on behalf of The Madison Project PAC in a continuing series of conservative endorsements for the 2012 congressional elections. Over the past year, we have learned the hard way that not all freshmen House members turned out to be the Tea Party champions that they claimed to be. Many of them cast their lot with leadership, eschewing all of the values that buoyed them into office. One such member is Paul Gosar in Arizona’s 4 th district. Arizona’s new 4 th district, which spans from the central part of the state to the entire western portion, is now the most conservative district in the state. Yet, Paul Gosar is, by far, the lowest performing member of the delegation. Gosar was the only member of the Republican delegation to vote for the debt ceiling deal and all the spending bills that violated the GOP pledge. He even refused to sign the Cut, Cap, and Balance pledge. Based on his voting record, it’s par for the course. If Gosar cannot stand up to leadership, even in the company of conservative colleagues in his home state, he will never improve over the years. We must do better from this conservative district, and with state Sen. Ron Gould, we will do better – a lot better. Gould is one of those rare candidates who is a conservative on the full spectrum of issues, is viable, and has a solid record to buttress his campaign promises. In his 7 years in the state senate, Gould was a leader on all issues related to taxation, spending, and illegal immigration. He was rated the most conservative member by the Goldwater Institute each year in office. We need to reinvigorate the House Republican conference with more full-spectrum conservatives who will stand up to leadership when they forget our first principles. Gould has already done that in Arizona. When Governor Jan Brewer proposed an increase in the sales tax before a joint session of the legislature, Gould walked out in protest. When asked by local Republicans to help fundraise for members that voted to raise the debt ceiling, he summarily turned them down. Gould would likely be another Jeff Flake, albeit with a fiery passion for social conservatism and the rule of law in immigration. When endorsing candidates, there is always some lingering uncertainty as to how well that individual would perform. With Ron Gould, there is no such uncertainty. That’s why the Madison Project is proud to endorse Ron Gould with 100% confidence in his bright future as a conservative stalwart in the House. There is plenty of time until the August 28 primary, but we must ensure that conservatives coalesce behind the right candidates early on in the primary. Let’s help Ron Gould share his message with the voters of this large district. The best way to replace a mediocre incumbent is after the first term. Cross-posted from The Madison Project
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Ron Gould for Congress in AZ-4
The sluggish economy favors a Republican presidential win come November, but some on the left argue that votes from a growing minority population will put President Obama over the top in the race for 270 electoral-college votes. Further, as the argument goes, these long-term demographic shifts could usher in a permanent left-of-center majority. Exhibit one in this argument is the recent Center for American Progress monograph, “The Path to 270: Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Election.” Authors Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin acknowledge that the Tea Party wave in the 2010 elections suggests that the American people reacted poorly to the explosion of spending, the loss of jobs, and the extremely weak recovery under Obama. But they argue nonetheless that the growing number of minority voters—and thus declining percentage of white voters—will allow Obama to win re-election. The study looks at national numbers, but also at the 50 state-by-state electoral-college contests. Teixeira and Halpin write, “The heart of the Obama coalition is the minority vote. In 2008, Obama received 80 percent support from communities of color, who made up 26 percent of all voters.” However, those numbers are changing: The 2010 minority share of the population was 36 percent, up more than five percentage points over 2000. That’s a rate of increase of around half a point a year over the decade. Applying that rate to the four years between 2008 and 2012 indicates that the minority share of voters should be about 28 percent in 2012, up from 26 percent in 2008. It’s true that some demographic changes are baked into the cake. And just as one cannot step twice into the same stream, candidates must be prepared to appeal to a new electorate every two, four, and six years. Republicans interested in winning elections have noticed that Hispanics have grown from 3.8 percent of voters in 1992, to 5.4 percent in 2000, and 7.4 percent in 2008. Of the 4 million children born in the United States last year, fully 25 percent were Hispanic. (Which means that 17 years from now, a quarter of newly eligible voters will be Hispanic.) But the demographics that truly matter are those that drive voting decisions, and, unlike race, many of them are mutable. Indeed they can be changed by politicians changing laws. One can, over time, recreate the electorate one faces each election year. Second Amendment Voters: Half of American households own guns. Almost 20 million Americans hunt. Since 1987, when Florida passed its “shall issue” concealed carry law, which bars the government from withholding carry permits from individuals who meet the requirements, fully 41 states have adopted similar rules. As a result, an estimated 7 million Americans now have concealed carry permits. Concealed carry laws have changed the electorate and created more voters—gun voters—who are increasingly sensitive of their Second Amendment rights. The left understood this process years ago. They passed restrictions on hunting that have driven a decline in the number of hunters with each generation. The NRA response has been to push for legislation making it easier for first time hunters and expanding hunting opportunities. Each team understands it is struggling to create an electorate in its image years and decades from now. Home-Schoolers: Twenty years ago home-schooling was illegal almost everywhere, but today it is legal and mainstream in all 50 states. Mike Farris, who helped organize this grassroots movement through the Home School Legal Defense Association and the Parental Rights Organization, estimates there are 2.5 million home-schooled children and 1.4 million home-schooling parents. Over the past 20 years, about 4 million parents have home-schooled some portion of their kids’ educations. Ten million voting adults were home-schooled at some point. Just like concealed carry, the home-schooling movement needed, first, legal recognition and protection and, second, peer approval to grow. The more Americans who know a friend or family member who has home-schooled, the more likely they are to do so as well. Charter Schoolers: The parents of the 10 percent of American students who attend private schools or charter schools know that the Democrat party is owned by the public-school teachers unions. No surprise then that one of President Obama’s first acts was to destroy the fledgling school-choice voucher system used by 3,000 students in Washington, D.C. While he sent his two daughters to the fancy and expensive ($32,000 a year) Sidwell Friends School, he crushed the law passed by Republicans that allowed low-income, predominantly black parents in the district to leave the failing—and expensive to taxpayers ($27,000 per year)—public schools. It is no coincidence, comrade, that states with Republican governors and legislators are, step by step, expanding parental choice. A handful of states have programs that allow businesses and individuals to receive tax credits for funding school-choice scholarships, which now benefit tens of thousands of students. Direct vouchers are available, though limited in terms of family eligibility, in 11 states. Last year, Indiana’s Mitch Daniels signed into law the nation’s largest voucher program, making around 55 percent of Hoosiers eligible. The number of vouchers is limited to 7,500 the first year, and 15,000 the second, but the limit is completely removed in year three. Also last year, Wisconsin increased the cap on its voucher program in Milwaukee and extended it to Racine. In March, the Arizona legislature approved the expansion of its education savings accounts—currently available to special-needs students—to those in failing public schools, children of U.S. military members, and gifted students. Meanwhile, the Louisiana House passed Gov. Bobby Jindal’s proposal establishing a voucher program for low- and middle-income families in underperforming public schools—fully 70 percent of all public schools. It is expected to pass the Senate, and might have done so already by the time you are reading this magazine. School choice changes the interests of parents, teachers, and, over time, young voters freed from state control. Every private-school teacher hired is one fewer public-school teacher forced to pay union dues and subject to political pressure every day in the same direction. Entrepreneurs and the Self-Employed: Obama and the Democrats have intensified their efforts to reduce the number of new small businesses and entrepreneurs. Yes, they demonize them in word. But their teeth show in their tax increases on “the rich,” which are deliberately targeted at the 30 million small businesses that pay not the corporate income tax, but the personal income tax: subchapter S corporations, partnerships, and the self-employed. In June 2007, there were 10 million self-employed Americans. That number was driven down to 8.6 million in July 2011. And things are getting worse. The tsunami of new regulations, Obamacare, and threatened tax hikes mean that Americans, per capita, are starting new businesses with employees just half as fast as they did 30 years ago. Looking at raw numbers: Americans started 563,324 businesses with employees in 1977 and only 403,765 in 2009. Fewer small businesses, fewer entrepreneurs…fewer Republicans. This is no accident, comrade. Government Workers: Rasmussen polling data show government workers are more likely to vote Democrat, and as their pay and length of tenure increase, so does that party loyalty. Not surprisingly, the stimulus packages passed by Obama and Reid used federal tax dollars to subsidize union-dues-paying, Democrat-voting, state and local government employees. Investors: Rasmussen polling also shows that Americans who have at least $5,000 invested in the stock market through, for instance, Individual Retirement Accounts or defined-benefit pension plans, are 18 percent more likely to vote Republican. Utah’s state senator Dan Liljenquist wrote and won passage of legislation that requires all state and local government employees hired after July 1, 2011, to have a defined-contribution plan. The state will contribute 10 percent of the employee’s income to a 401(k), or 12 percent for police and firemen, and there will therefore be no newly created unfunded liabilities. (And fewer newly created Democrats; personal savings breeds Republicans.) No surprise that Obama pushes higher taxes on saving and investment, and the confiscation of half your estate through the death tax. Ineligible and Dead Voters: One can also change the electorate by expanding it to include the departed: both those who have moved to other jurisdictions but whose names remain on voter lists, and those who have actually died and yet can cast ballots through the living, if no one is watching. Republicans have enacted voter ID laws in several states to limit opportunities for voter fraud, but Obama’s “Justice Department” is working hard to overturn them. Voter integrity efforts change the nature of the electorate in one direction; voter fraud moves it in the other. Following the ideologically embarrassing workers’ revolt against the East German paradise in 1953, Bertolt Brecht recommended that the Communists elect themselves a new people. In free societies, over time elected officials can in fact create an electorate more sympathetic to their views. The smart Republican and Democrat leaders have been doing this for years. The 2012 elections will determine not only the direction of America, but the very nature of its people.
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Demography, Destiny, and Delusion
Economic Ignorance and the Buffett Rule
On Monday, the United States Senate voted on S.2230 , the Orwellian-of-title “Paying a Fair Share Act of 2012.” (More precisely, senators voted on whether to invoke cloture and end debate on the measure.) Based on the so-called “Buffett Rule,” the bill, authored by Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and cosponsored by the most left-wing members of the Senate, aims to raise the taxes of American taxpayers who earn $1,000,000 or more in a year by forcing anyone who meets the income thresholds to pay a minimum percentage of their total income to the federal government. The tally was 51 votes in favor, short of the required 60 votes, with 45 senators voting against this naked and divisive class warfare. It was a party-line vote other than Susan Collins (RINO-ME) who voted with the Democrats while Mark Pryor (D-AR) voted with the Republicans. (Neither is up for re-election in 2012.) Two Republicans, one Democrat, and Joe Lieberman did not vote, with Lieberman issuing a statement that he was against the Buffett Rule. Specifically, the bill would create a 30-percent income tax rate which phases in beginning at one million dollars of income and is fully effective at $2 million of income. Other than the “phase-in” the tax calculation is simple: If you make more than a million dollars, take your adjusted gross income, subtract charitable deductions, then multiply by 30 percent. From that amount, subtract the income tax, payroll tax, and Alternative Minimum Tax already due or paid, but add back your itemized deductions. (Taxes paid to foreign governments, income taxes withheld from your paycheck, and tax refunds for fuel used on farms and other non-road purposes are not added back to income for “Fair Share” calculations.) Then write a check for that amount to the United States Treasury. For those Americans who are unfortunate enough to have great success in their businesses or investments, this bill effectively disallows deductions for mortgage interest, retirement account contributions, adoption expenses and other common itemized deductions except for donations to charity. Between one and two million dollars of income, the additional tax is reduced based on how far along that scale you are, so that at $1.5 million, your “fair share” punishment is half of the amount calculated based on the above formula. One revolutionary aspect — in the sense that V.I. Lenin or Fidel Castro was a revolutionary — of the “Fair Share Act” is that it does not add a marginal rate increase to those earning above the Democrats’ demonization threshold. Instead, it retroactively increases the tax rate on the first dollar earned, while simultaneously increasing the amount of the victim’s earnings that is subject to taxation. It is a plan that is corrosive to our nation, pitting Americans against each other. It is a plan that will have negligible economic impact, raising less than 1 percent of the anticipated accumulated deficit over the next decade… and even that assumes away the anti-growth impacts of such an anti-entrepreneurial tax. The likely result is even worse than these estimates. And because so many Americans no longer know what has made our nation a success, it is a plan that, even as it fails legislatively, may work politically. To the extent that very-high-income Americans have an effective tax rate that is lower than class warriors think it “should” be, it is primarily from the portion of their income that comes from capital gains (and to a lesser extent from dividends). History has shown us that raising capital gains taxes does not generate more tax revenue. The vaunted Clinton budget surplus, for example, only arose in the second half of his presidency after he signed the 1997 law that cut the capital gains tax rate from 28 percent to 20 percent. According to a Heritage Foundation study , the Treasury Department estimated that the tax cut would cause a small net loss of revenue to the government, estimated at about $30 billion in the fourth year after implementation. Instead, from 1996 to 1999, capital gains tax receipts increased by over 71 percent while GDP growth accelerated and unemployment dropped. To be sure, not all of the increased economic activity and stock price increase of the period was due to the capital gains tax cut. But some of it surely was, a contention boosted by the fact that capital gains tax receipts also jumped almost 25% in just two years following President Reagan’s 1981 tax cuts. But this isn’t really about revenue for the Obama administration, and it never has been. When asked in 2008 about whether he would raise capital gains taxes even if it doesn’t raise revenue, he said yes “for purposes of fairness.” Unfortunately for our republic, American citizens’ economic literacy — which should be the body politic’s primary anti-venom against President Obama’s snake oil — is just where the liberals want it, which is to say non-existent. Progressives have spent a century stripping public education and the ivory towers of universities of economic rationality. Such rationality — including the obvious lessons of an untaught history — would reinforce the limited-government principles of our Founding which are directly antithetical to the Progressive vision. Economic and political restraint go hand in glove, as well understood by those who penned our national rulebook called the Constitution. For those of you who went to public school and finished high school in the last 20 years, you know that the Constitution is a barely legible piece of paper, written by a bunch of dead rich white guys. You know that it means what a few people in black robes say it means (regardless of its plain language). And you probably don’t know that the left sees it as “political witchcraft” and an obstacle to their long-held dreams of political nirvana in which the smart people (no conservatives or libertarians need apply) wield power over the rest of us — for our own benefit, of course. In short, you know just what John Dewey (hero of Marxists ) and his disciples wanted you to know — and maybe less, but certainly not more. By offering “everything for everyone for free” (a slogan I actually saw on a 20-foot wide banner during the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver), Democrats — with the unforgiveable passivity of decades of Republicans — are creating the political nightmare foreseen in a quote usually attributed to Alexander Tytler: “A democracy…can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits…with the result that a democracy always collapses….” A Gallup poll released on Friday suggest that a majority of Americans favor the thinking behind “Buffett Rule,” including nearly 63 percent of independent voters (with only 33 percent of independents opposing it.) While Karl Marx smiles, Tytler nods grimly, thinking “I told you so.” Another Gallup poll asked people whether they thought their tax bills were too high, too low, or about right. At 47 percent, the “about right” response matched its high for the past decade, and at 46 percent, the “too high” contingent was on the low end of its range. This is, of course, following the Bush tax cuts and before the implementation of the massive Obamacare tax hikes we’re soon to be hit with. For the left, if 47 percent think that tax rates are about right — and especially if the “rich” think so, which the poll suggests — they must be far too low. If there is a true warning sign in this second poll, however, and a message likely to keep Democrats going all-in with the class warfare rhetoric, it is that the income group most likely to say that the tax code is “unfair” and that their own taxes are too high is the lowest income group, those earning less than $30,000 per year. 2012 marked the first time since Gallup began asking the question that those who pay the least in tax had the strongest opinion that the tax code is “unfair.” It is safe to assume that the unfairness they refer to is not that they are not paying enough in tax, or that the current system is the most “progressive” in our nation’s recent history (in terms of what income groups pay what percentage of income taxes), or that their votes are being bought with other people’s money, or that perhaps they should also share some of the cost of our national defense. Yes, those Americans who pay almost nothing in federal income taxes are the most likely to think that they should pay even less and that those who already shoulder nearly the entire burden should shoulder more. According to the National Taxpayers Union , in 2009, those Americans who earned under $32,396 comprised the bottom 50 percent of taxpayers ranked by Adjusted Gross Income. As a group, that 50 percent of taxpayers paid 2.25 percent of all federal income taxes. Their share of taxes has been steadily dropping, going from 4 percent in 1999 to 3 percent in 2005 to 2.25 percent in 2009. In 2009, there were 59 million tax returns filed which either had zero federal tax liability or which resulted in a net tax refund. And this only includes those who file tax returns; millions of low-income Americans file no tax returns. I wonder how many of these people were counted in Gallup’s survey. The fact that these are the people who are most upset about their tax bills — while the top 1 percent of American earners pay more federal income tax than the bottom 90 percent, and the top 0.1 percent pay more than the bottom 75 percent — says all you need to know about how close we are to losing our country. With the ongoing failure of their “Republican war on women” theme (thanks in part to Hilary Rosen and Bill Maher making clear what Democrats actually think of women), the Obama administration aims to win reelection by returning to the left’s longest-running strategy: pitting Americans against each other with beggar-thy-neighbor class-based jealousy. Politicians, including Democrats, of years past have understood the danger of raising taxes, and the benefits of cutting them. John F. Kennedy understood: “The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility and flow of risk capital from static to more dynamic situations, the ease or difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining capital, and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy.” Or, if you don’t want JFK, how about this ultra-conservative quote: “Next year’s tax bill should reduce personal as well as corporate income taxes, for those in the lower brackets, who are certain to spend their additional take-home pay, and for those in the middle and upper brackets, who can thereby be encouraged to undertake additional efforts and enabled to invest more capital… I am confident that the enactment of the right bill next year will in due course increase our gross national product by several times the amount of taxes actually cut.” Reagan? Goldwater? Thatcher? Coolidge? Romney? Actually, that’s JFK too. Quoting John F. Kennedy’s many pro-growth tax policy views should become part of Republican talking points each and every day, reminding independent voters just which party has really become “extreme” on the economic issues that trouble Americans each and every day. The class warfare — which JFK would disdain — embodied by the “Fair Share Act” is transparent. It is reprehensible. It is un-American. And the bill itself failed in the Senate. But politically, thanks to ignorant voters who know exactly what the left wants them to know, it just might work.
Bad News For Obama: Poll Finds Voters Trust Romney Over Obama On The Economy By 49%-39% Margin…
It’s the economy, not this absurd “war on women” nonsense the Dems are pushing, that’s going to decide this election. Via Rasmussen: Voters now have more confidence in presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney than in President Obama when it comes to the economy, but on other major issues facing the nation, the two men continue
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Bad News For Obama: Poll Finds Voters Trust Romney Over Obama On The Economy By 49%-39% Margin…