[Posted by Karl] Only the naive thought stories like this were going away: Political hacktivist group Anonymous claims to have found emails linking Texas Rep. Ron Paul to an American white supremacist group, a claim the Paul campaign says is completely untrue. Las Vegas-based group American Third Party Position (AP3) — whose stated goal is “to reach out to Americans of European ancestry and particularly to disenfranchised White workers, farmers and students who have become victims of the discriminatory affirmative action policies” — was allegedly hacked by Anonymous Tuesday, and emails purportedly reveal close ties between Paul and members who are admitted white supremacists. Last week the story was that Paul was deeply involved in the company that produced racist, anti-gay, conspiracy-mongering newsletters , Ron Paul & Associates, and closely monitored its operations, signing off on articles and speaking to staff members virtually every day. I am in no position to confirm or deny the Anonymous claims, but Paul is the guy who once bragged about how much money he raised from the mailing list for The Spotlight, the conspiracy-mongering, anti-Semitic tabloid run by the Holocaust denier Willis Carto. Paul’s columns appeared in in the American Free Press — another Carto publication. His 2008 campaign was, er, unconcerned about donations coming via the Stormfront website. And Paul’s association with Civil War revisionists and the John Birch Society are recent-to-ongoing. Accordingly, the campaign’s denials are going to be met with skepticism in many quarters. But probably not from all quarters. My interest in the newsletter story has been Paul’s apologists and supporters in the media and libertarian circles. These folks are are spinning for Paul because they see his campaign as their best chance at gaining real-world political influence. That’s interesting insofar as these sorts of libertarians generally look down on supporters of the major parties as grubby and unprincipled. But for all their touting of Ron Paul as the principled candidate in the race, he’s a poseur on entitlements . Beyond what these stories reveal about supposedly principled libertarians, there is a potential residual effect on the election. Although Paul is downplaying expectations for the Nevada caucus , it appears he plans to stay in the race and amass as many delegates as he can for leverage at the GOP convention. Giving Paul a prime speaking slot or influence over the platform will give the establishment media a chance to drape his dirty laundry all over the eventual nominee, much as they hung Pat Buchanan’s around the neck of George H. W. Bush in 1992. –Karl
The rest is here:
Ron Paul campaign denies white supremacist ties
RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue — the woman who wanted to cancel congressional elections — has decided to cancel her own. After signaling that she would seek a second term in 2012, Perdue shocked the political world Jan. 26 when she scuttled her re-election bid. The decision has implications far beyond the confines of Tar Heel politics. Perdue, a Democrat and the state’s first female governor, ranked as one of the weakest incumbent governors this year. She rode President Obama’s coattails in 2008 to defeat former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory by a whisker. Without the benefit of Obama’s turnout machine, Perdue would have lost. Her chances were even dimmer in 2012, so she dropped out. Her official reason was to fight for public education, which Democrats claim was damaged by a budget approved by the Republican-controlled legislature last year. “It is clear to me that my race for re-election will only further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools,” Perdue said. “A re-election campaign in this already divisive environment will make it more difficult to find bipartisan solutions.” It was a rationale that induced collective head scratching across the state. Even many Democrats doubted the effectiveness of surrendering the war to win it. But all of them are relieved that Perdue will no longer top the ballot with Obama. Perdue has consistently trailed McCrory, the presumed GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2012, in recent polls. Perdue’s departure means the gubernatorial race will be more competitive. That’s good news for Democrats; plenty of bad news accompanies it. Perdue’s late announcement — coming three weeks before candidate filing begins for the primary in May — left North Carolina’s Democratic Party in disarray. There is no presumed successor to the governor’s office, prompting a dozen Democrats to voice interest in the job publicly. No doubt many more pondered the possibility privately. The lieutenant governor’s post is seen as a stepping-stone to the governor’s office. But the current lieutenant governor, Walter Dalton, is a nonentity to many Democrats. Even more, his political history has liberals wary. Before being elected lieutenant governor in 2008, Dalton was a moderate to conservative Democrat in the state Senate, elected from a rural district. In 2005, he co-sponsored a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and civil unions, a position that he tried to walk back this week. The sin of supporting traditional marriage might be too great for orthodox liberals. Democrats had hoped that current Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, an African American, would jump into the race. Foxx had a lot going for him: He won a second term as mayor in November by a hefty margin, and is seen as an up-and-coming political rock star in the vein of Obama. His popularity in Charlotte, North Carolina’s most populous city, would have struck a blow to McCrory. But Foxx opted to fight another day and passed on a gubernatorial bid. Enter Erskine Bowles. Yes, that Erskine Bowles, of Simpson-Bowles debt commission fame. Shortly after Perdue announced her retirement, pundits began speculating that Bowles might enter the race and immediately jump to the front of the pack. Polling backed up that assertion. A survey by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Bowles and McCrory in a statistical dead heat. That was big news: Perdue trailed the former Charlotte mayor by double digits, and no other Democrat who would potentially run performs well in a hypothetical matchup. But Democrats were dealt another blow Thursday when Bowles announced that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s office. If he had thrown his hat into the ring, his background, experience, and name recognition would have made him the most able challenger to McCrory. That leaves two candidates who have announced so far: Dalton, and N.C. House member Bill Faison, who hails from the liberal bastion of Chapel Hill. Faison will make plenty of noise — he publicly called for Perdue to forego a second term, and caught grief from fellow Democrats for doing it — but he doesn’t have a prayer. It remains to be seen whether Democrats will coalesce around Dalton or opt for a more liberal alternative. Liberals’ favorite pick would be U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, first elected to represent the state’s 13th Congressional District in 2002. Republicans all but drew Miller out of his seat this year, packing the district with more GOP voters. It’s doubtful whether Miller could be successful in a statewide campaign, though. His politics have made him one of the most liberal white Democrats in the South. On the national stage, Perdue’s decision proved a bit of a curveball to Democrats. Yes, they wanted her out of the way — there is even speculation that Obama himself was responsible for shuttering her re-election bid, telling her that he couldn’t win North Carolina with her on the ballot — but this is also an embarrassment. When Democrats descend on Charlotte in early September for their convention, it will be in a state where the sitting Democratic governor is quitting due to unpopularity. That can’t help Obama in a must-win state. In the end, Perdue’s decision turned a competitive election year in the Tar Heel State into a wild rollercoaster ride. Democrats are happy that Perdue is gone, and they feel renewed momentum going into the gubernatorial election with a fresh start. Republicans are even more optimistic with their champion McCrory. It’s already a messy year. It’ll only get more so.
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Carolina Girl
There are storm clouds on the horizon. A day after Mitt Romney’s massive win in Florida he opened his mouth and promptly told conservatives he was incapable of articulating conservatism. Then Newt Gingrich found a bright line rule in the Republican rules that clearly and precisely states that all delegates awarded before April 1, 2012, must be proportional. There goes giving Romney all fifty delegates from Florida despite what Florida’s GOP Chairman says. Then National Review and other Romney supporters , taking a bit of comfort in his secure win in Florida, decided they could finally express some buyers remorse, or at least now stop zealously defending him and criticize him some. Then people really examined the exit polls in Florida. What they found was that turnout fell from 2008. But in counties where turn out was up, Newt Gingrich won. Where turnout from 2008 was down, Romney won. This pattern followed South Carolina. The base remains unexcited about Romney and his comments yesterday about the poor and the social safety net keep the base from getting excited. What should have been Mitt Romney heading into February securing his nomination now becomes an effort to stave off a rear guard action to pick him off. Gingrich and Santorum now have the ammunition they need to keep the Great Coalescing from happening. What should have been a clear path to the nomination is suddenly in jeopardy. We’ll get into it all in the Horserace. Newt Gingrich You would not know it, but Gingrich has put his campaign through a bit of a shake up in order to instill more discipline within the campaign and hopefully within himself. His erratic messaging and attacks hurt him in Florida. He knows it. The campaign knows that Newt Gingrich’s debate strategy — naps and quiet time — I AM NOT JOKING — will no longer serve him. The Romney camp sought to destroy the myth of Gingrich the Great Debater and largely succeeded in Florida. Gingrich has much to do. He needs more focus, more message discipline, and more delegates. The RNC rule on proportional delegates will help him. Like Florida, Arizona had intended a winner take all primary, but that is not to be. And lucky for Gingrich, Mitt Romney’s comments on the poor and the conservative outcry over them will give Gingrich an issue with which he can focus on jobs, the economy, and Mitt Romney. If Gingrich is serious about staying in till the convention, he could deny Romney a first ballot win and spare the base from the man they don’t like, even if Newt himself cannot get the nomination. He is more of a long shot today than he was a day before Florida, but he can still be the nominee. Ron Paul The spectacular disaster of the Ron Paul campaign has been one of the least told stories on the campaign trail. The media is officially ignoring Ron Paul because they don’t want to deal with the crazy that will come out if they even deal with Ron Paul objectively. He came in third in Iowa. He came in second in New Hampshire. He came in fourth in South Carolina. He came in fourth in Florida. Yes, he may currently lead Santorum in delegates, but consistently coming in behind the winner does not help him. He has not won a single state. He is the only candidate left standing to not win a state. He hopes that Nevada will be that state. Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll, but the polls show he won’t come in first. It is Ron Paul’s best shot at a first place win. If he does not come in first in Nevada, his only other hope is to go to a brokered convention. That becomes harder and harder for him as we get to winner take all states if he can’t win at least one now. Ron Paul will not be the nominee. But might Gingrich and Santorum ally with Paul in Virginia and throw their support to him? It would bolster Paul there, but more importantly it would hurt Mitt Romney badly. Santorum and Gingrich are not on the ballot there. Mitt Romney Had Mitt Romney not gone on Soledad O’Brien’s show and said what he said, he would be fully secure in his nomination. He has put himself in jeopardy. He gives Santorum and Gingrich wiggle room to keep playing. I have to agree with Jamie Dupree of Cox Media Group’s Washington Bureau. Mitt Romney is too message disciplined for something like this to happen accidentally. There had to be campaign preparation for this. There had to be campaign strategy behind the statement. My only guess is that, like Gingrich, Romney is exhausted from three weeks of grueling campaigns. He didn’t get the talking points out right. He flubbed. But to go on CNN and say what he said and then reiterate it later with a surrogate saying Romney won’t change policies for the poor had to be a planned strategy. The messaging had to have gotten screwed up though. That, or the Romney camp really is out of touch. This is still Mitt Romney’s race to win or lose. The next few states favor him. But he just gave powerful ammunition to Gingrich and Santorum. How those campaigns use it will tell us more about them than Romney. Rick Santorum The Romney camp is actually nervous about Santorum. They believe he can do well in the caucus states that, even though they are non-binding, will put wind into Santorum’s sail. They are nervous. Santorum has not shown he can compete past Iowa. He does not have the money. He does not have the resources. He does not have a large enough team. But he has passion. And I maintain that Santorum staying in the race hurts Romney more than Gingrich because ultimately Santorum’s voters will drift slowly to Romney. That won’t happen with Santorum in the race. And if, like in South Carolina, Santorum is able to pick up steam and money, Romney will have both Gingrich and Santorum firing at him. That’s bad news for Romney.
Read more:
Horserace for February 2, 2012
There are storm clouds on the horizon. A day after Mitt Romney’s massive win in Florida he opened his mouth and promptly told conservatives he was incapable of articulating conservatism. Then Newt Gingrich found a bright line rule in the Republican rules that clearly and precisely states that all delegates awarded before April 1, 2012, must be proportional. There goes giving Romney all fifty delegates from Florida despite what Florida’s GOP Chairman says. Then National Review and other Romney supporters , taking a bit of comfort in his secure win in Florida, decided they could finally express some buyers remorse, or at least now stop zealously defending him and criticize him some. Then people really examined the exit polls in Florida. What they found was that turnout fell from 2008. But in counties where turn out was up, Newt Gingrich won. Where turnout from 2008 was down, Romney won. This pattern followed South Carolina. The base remains unexcited about Romney and his comments yesterday about the poor and the social safety net keep the base from getting excited. What should have been Mitt Romney heading into February securing his nomination now becomes an effort to stave off a rear guard action to pick him off. Gingrich and Santorum now have the ammunition they need to keep the Great Coalescing from happening. What should have been a clear path to the nomination is suddenly in jeopardy. We’ll get into it all in the Horserace. Newt Gingrich You would not know it, but Gingrich has put his campaign through a bit of a shake up in order to instill more discipline within the campaign and hopefully within himself. His erratic messaging and attacks hurt him in Florida. He knows it. The campaign knows that Newt Gingrich’s debate strategy — naps and quiet time — I AM NOT JOKING — will no longer serve him. The Romney camp sought to destroy the myth of Gingrich the Great Debater and largely succeeded in Florida. Gingrich has much to do. He needs more focus, more message discipline, and more delegates. The RNC rule on proportional delegates will help him. Like Florida, Arizona had intended a winner take all primary, but that is not to be. And lucky for Gingrich, Mitt Romney’s comments on the poor and the conservative outcry over them will give Gingrich an issue with which he can focus on jobs, the economy, and Mitt Romney. If Gingrich is serious about staying in till the convention, he could deny Romney a first ballot win and spare the base from the man they don’t like, even if Newt himself cannot get the nomination. He is more of a long shot today than he was a day before Florida, but he can still be the nominee. Ron Paul The spectacular disaster of the Ron Paul campaign has been one of the least told stories on the campaign trail. The media is officially ignoring Ron Paul because they don’t want to deal with the crazy that will come out if they even deal with Ron Paul objectively. He came in third in Iowa. He came in second in New Hampshire. He came in fourth in South Carolina. He came in fourth in Florida. Yes, he may currently lead Santorum in delegates, but consistently coming in behind the winner does not help him. He has not won a single state. He is the only candidate left standing to not win a state. He hopes that Nevada will be that state. Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll, but the polls show he won’t come in first. It is Ron Paul’s best shot at a first place win. If he does not come in first in Nevada, his only other hope is to go to a brokered convention. That becomes harder and harder for him as we get to winner take all states if he can’t win at least one now. Ron Paul will not be the nominee. But might Gingrich and Santorum ally with Paul in Virginia and throw their support to him? It would bolster Paul there, but more importantly it would hurt Mitt Romney badly. Santorum and Gingrich are not on the ballot there. Mitt Romney Had Mitt Romney not gone on Soledad O’Brien’s show and said what he said, he would be fully secure in his nomination. He has put himself in jeopardy. He gives Santorum and Gingrich wiggle room to keep playing. I have to agree with Jamie Dupree of Cox Media Group’s Washington Bureau. Mitt Romney is too message disciplined for something like this to happen accidentally. There had to be campaign preparation for this. There had to be campaign strategy behind the statement. My only guess is that, like Gingrich, Romney is exhausted from three weeks of grueling campaigns. He didn’t get the talking points out right. He flubbed. But to go on CNN and say what he said and then reiterate it later with a surrogate saying Romney won’t change policies for the poor had to be a planned strategy. The messaging had to have gotten screwed up though. That, or the Romney camp really is out of touch. This is still Mitt Romney’s race to win or lose. The next few states favor him. But he just gave powerful ammunition to Gingrich and Santorum. How those campaigns use it will tell us more about them than Romney. Rick Santorum The Romney camp is actually nervous about Santorum. They believe he can do well in the caucus states that, even though they are non-binding, will put wind into Santorum’s sail. They are nervous. Santorum has not shown he can compete past Iowa. He does not have the money. He does not have the resources. He does not have a large enough team. But he has passion. And I maintain that Santorum staying in the race hurts Romney more than Gingrich because ultimately Santorum’s voters will drift slowly to Romney. That won’t happen with Santorum in the race. And if, like in South Carolina, Santorum is able to pick up steam and money, Romney will have both Gingrich and Santorum firing at him. That’s bad news for Romney.
See the rest here:
Horserace for February 2, 2012
As I predicted yesterday, it is now being reported that Donald Trump will endorse Mitt Romney rather than Newt Gingrich. It’s no surprise to me since Trump’s main issue (now that he’s stopped talking about President Obama’s birth certificate) is China. Mitt Romney has the most aggressively anti-China rhetoric of any of the candidates. Romney is right to focus on Chinese theft of American intellectual property but dangerously naive with his populist appeal to “unfair” Chinese trading practices, especially when based on the value of the Chinese currency. Trump was never actually going to run. He was just keeping himself in the news to boost his television ratings. Romney’s sharing Trump’s idiocy on China gives Trump the most graceful possible way to explain to the fawning news media while he is not entering the race. As for Romney, he should say “Thanks” to The Donald, but just once, and then never mention it again and do everything he can to keep Trump quiet, and far from the campaign trail. A Fox News poll suggests that three times as many voters are likely to vote against a candidate whom Trump endorsed as are likely to vote for the candidate for that reason.
More here:
Trump to Endorse Romney
