Chris Christie’s Time to Run

On May 27, 2011, in Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, by AlvarezDana

Let me put an editorial note here that this is not in any way, shape, or form an endorsement of Chris Christie. It is, rather, my assessment of his chances for the Presidency should he choose to pass on 2012. The governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, claims he has no intention of running for president in 2012. I believe that 2012 is the only time Chris Christie will be a highly viable candidate. Should Chris Christie not run in this presidential cycle, I believe this will be the last we will hear of Chris Christie for President. I think Chris Christie is going to all have a very difficult time winning reelection in New Jersey in 2013. By then, New Jersey’s debt and economic problems will still be large, even if Chris Christie is successful in this term. Likewise, we can expect a more concerted and unified effort among Democrats and allies like unions than we saw even in 2009. Given New Jersey’s nature as a Democrat leaning state, I think Christie will have a hard time getting reelected. Were he to lose, it would be three years before the next presidential election making it even harder for Chris Christie to be seen as a viable presidential candidate. But let’s assume that Chris Christie does win reelection. The buzz surrounding Chris Christie right now largely exists in the vacuum of another high-profile governor who could run for office. Should Sarah Palin or Rick Perry enter the race, the Christie buzz would be significantly tapped down. Remember as well that the viability of a Chris Christie candidacy in 2016 is premised on the fact that the Republicans do not win the White House in 2012. I actually think Republicans will win in 2012, and should they, Chris Christie will not be a viable candidate against an incumbent Republican president in 2016. To continue the argument about Chris Christie’s future viability, we must assume that a Republican does not win in 2012 and Barack Obama is reelected. Assuming that, we must first take out the major Chris Christie buzz of this year which is largely premised on the perceived lack of a high-profile, stellar candidate. Push Chris Christie into the 2016 cycle and he is confronted with a field of candidates including potentially governors from New Mexico, Nevada, Louisiana, South Carolina, Texas, and, should their popularity recover, Florida and Ohio. In that list of potential candidates for 2016, Chris Christie’s record in New Jersey may not stack up as well. Likewise, we should not dismiss the fact that much of Chris Christie’s popularity comes from YouTube videos done rather well by his staff. Very few have done a detailed examination of Chris Christie’s record and how it matches up to his rhetoric. Should he be found wanting on the rhetoric to record ratio, it would be another dent in his armor. Notwithstanding that, looking at his potential rivals in 2016, Christie is by no means a sure win and, will in fact, be not nearly as fresh a face on the scene as many of the other governors on the list. Additionally, should the Democrats really perceive Chris Christie to be a threat, they can spend the next several years working to undermine his credibility in New Jersey to negatively affect with Republican primary voters nationwide. I have always thought the greatest incentive for Chris Christie to run for president is the lack of a high-profile, stellar Republican candidate in 2012. Had we a rock star this time, the Christie buzz would largely dissipate because he’s not even a one term governor. If the Republicans win in 2012, his viability in 2016 goes away entirely and if the Republicans lose in 2012, he still must winning reelection in New Jersey and then enter into a potentially crowded Republican field in 2016 with much fresher faces who will arguably have much better records as governors simply because they were not governor of a state like New Jersey. Therefore, should Chris Christie wish to run for president ever, I believe he better reconsider 2012 rather quickly.

Read this article:
Chris Christie’s Time to Run

Find or Create Hilarious Merchandise at CafePress
Tagged with:
 

Anatomy of a Hatchet Job

On January 16, 2011, in Barack Obama, by richwas

Newark Star-Ledger columnist Tom Moran has an op-ed today that very well may be the most disingenuous editorial thus far written on New Jersey Governor Chris Chrtistie.  Titled “The Anatomy of an $11 Billion Myth in New Jersey,” The piece makes wildly inaccurate claims about Christie’s fiscal year 2011 budget, falsely alleges that Christie has made false claims about his budget, and attempts to pin blame on Christie for inaccurate reporting on the budget in the press. As if all that isn’t enough, Mr. Moran bases his baseless conclusions on an internal contradiction so glaringly obvious even a liberal Star-Ledger columnist should be able to spot it. In  comments on his editorial, however, Moran says critics shouldn’t focus on him in addressing the claims he makes, but should instead seek to refute the arguments.  He’s pretty confident that it can’t be done. “How about this crazy idea: Let’s assume our fellow citizens are acting in good faith, let’s stop attacking motives and instead address the argument. Haven’t heard anyone dispute the heart of the argument. And how could you? These are facts, unrefuted.” That sounds like a Tuscon Challenge™, Mr. Moran.  So here goes, civilly, one at a time. First a little background.  Mr. Moran has been in the vanguard of the hand-wringers brigade in New Jersey that has been taking after Gov. Christie for his “ confrontational tone ” almost since the day he took office.  At a press conference last May during which Christie rejected the Democrats’ plan to reinstate a surtax on high income earners, Moran was on the business end of a pretty thorough rebuke from Christie on the subject of tone. Watch here: That clip was one of many that would win Gov. Christie praise from conservatives and attention from the press nationwide, leaving Moran with more than a little bit of egg on his face. Moran claims that Christie has been misleading in claiming that his fiscal year budget cut $11 billion from the state budget.  ”[I]t’s a myth. He cut $2.7 billion,” Moran writes.  As evidence, he cites a recent quote from Christie on the Imus radio program in which the governor says: “It was an $11 billion budget deficit on a $29 billion budget my buddy Jon Corzine left me, and we fixed it.” Notice what is not contained in that quote.  Nowhere does the governor claim that he cut $11 billion from the budget.  He only asserts that his budget “fixed” the $11 billion deficit problem. Mr. Moran must have known that the quote was flimsy evidence because he tries to cover for it by alleging that Christie is responsible for shoddy reporting on his budget cuts, rather than the news organizations themselves.  Moran inexplicably faults Christie for a 60 Minutes report that said he cut the state’s budget by 26%.  The actual figure is 9%, and Christie has never claimed otherwise.  Just last week in his first State of the State address to the New Jersey Legislature, the governor cited the correct figure . Christie said his fiscal 2011 budget, enacted with only minor changes by the Democratic legislature last June, had reduced spending by 9 percent from the prior year, closing a projected $11 billion deficit without raising taxes. The budget accomplished this by making cuts – some as much as 39 percent – in every department in state government. It also contained cuts of more than $445 million in aid to municipalities and $800 million in state aid to schools on top of $475 million in education spending that was withheld from the prior year. Moran tries to get around Christie’s budget balancing prowess by explaining that the $11 billion budget deficit estimate is not what it seems. “[H]ere’s the skinny: Every year, the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services estimates the cost of fully funding every state program — all pension payments, all property tax rebates, all school funding, etc. No governor ever does that. The purpose of this exercise is to establish a starting point for the budget tug-of-war.” Remember that point, that the OLS budget number is essentially a worst case scenario, because Moran almost immediately forgets it, and it gets him tied up in knots.  Before his big finish, however, Moran makes one more errant charge about Christie’s budget cutting prowess.  Only this time, he winds up indicting prior Democratic administrations as well. Moran correctly notes that New Jersey’s budget is in dire straits in large part to unfunded liabilities in the public employees’ pension system – some $54 billion this year.  Moran says that the pension’s impact on the bottom line has worsened, “partly because Christie skipped the $3 billion payment that was due this year.”  So far, so good. But Moran leaves out two important points.  He fails to mention that New Jersey governors have failed to make full contributions to the pension system for most of the past ten years , which would include the entire tenures of Christie’s Democratic predecessors Jim McGreevy and Jon Corzine; and he conveniently forgets to factor in the effect of generous pension benefit increases given to the state’s public sector unions by those Democratic administrations.  Christie, in fact, has called on the Democratic controlled legislature to rescind a 9% pension increase granted by Corzine as part of a package of reforms to the system. Moran now makes his closing argument.  He says that the ultimate proof that Christie’s budget cuts aren’t all that the governor or the press has made them out to be is seen in the estimated budget deficit for fiscal year 2012.  That estimate is $10.5 billion, “nearly as bad as this year’s,” he says.  But the estimated budget deficit Moran cites comes from the very same OLS that he earlier said produced the mythical $11 billion deficit estimate for fiscal 2011.  Indeed in the very sentence preceding his close, Moran calls the $11 billion figure “theoretical.” Moran is unashamedly trying to have it both ways in this editorial.  Either the estimated budget deficits for 2011 and 2012 are real or they are not.  He cannot claim that Christie’s work to close the 2011 budget hole is as meaningless as the number it is based on, then offer as proof the very same number from the very same source . Furthermore, Moran’s criticism is completely irrelevant since Gov. Christie already addressed the OLS estimate for 2012 .  Christie said that the calculation was “fake,” and pledged not to reinstate cuts that were made last year. “[The estimate comes] a mindset that says, ‘We’re going to build back all the cuts the governor made this year, and we’re going to then give it the hands-off-the-wheel enhancement,’” Christie said. “The number is completely fake, and doesn’t understand the new reality, which is I’m not going to approve spending that goes over [last year].” “The new bar is set. The place to reduce from is where we are now,” Christie said. If Moran wanted to be honest, he would have acknowledged the governor’s comments on the OLS estimate.  It seems clear, however, that Moran has no interest in honest criticism.  What he wants to do is cast accusations at Christie in the vain hope that they will somehow cause the governor to pursue policies that Moran finds more acceptable.  One might even say that Moran has adopted a “confrontational” tone on this issue. Mr. Moran, consider yourself refudiated.  The ball is in your court.

More here:
Anatomy of a Hatchet Job

Find or Create Hilarious Merchandise at CafePress
Tagged with:
 

Filed under: Analysis To survive, the New Jersey horse industry needs Atlantic City to relax its monopolistic hold on gambling in the state, which means it needs the new governor to take a stand.

Find or Create Hilarious Merchandise at CafePress

Yesterday the report came out that Bob Decheine, chief of staff for Rep. Steve Rothman (D, NJ), had been abruptly fired .  This came as a bit of a surprise, as Decheine has been a notable figure in NJ Democratic politics : he was a senior adviser to the Obama campaign in 2008 , and as Rothman’s CoS had just shepherded his boss to another win in Congress, by fair means or foul .  In other words, a bit of a surprise, no?  Turns out Decheine got arrested last week for soliciting sex from a minor .  It was a sting operation, which means that – thank God – no kids were hurt by this guy. This time: because unless we’re really, really lucky this creep* has been doing this for a while.  So now would be a good time for people to come forward with any evidence that they might have about this Decheine’s past activities.  Because if it turns out that there’s a history that those people didn’t talk about… well.  The longer it stays hidden, the worse it’ll smell when it’s exhumed. Moe Lane ( crosspost ) *If Rothman’s office is treating this accusation as fully justified and incontestable – and an instant-firing qualifies for that descriptor – then why shouldn’t I? PS: More details here .

See the article here:
Rothman chief of staff arrested on child solicitation charges.

Find or Create Hilarious Merchandise at CafePress

Filed under: Education Gov. Chris Christie fired New Jersey’s education chief Friday after a blunder that might have cost the state a $400 million education grant.

Find or Create Hilarious Merchandise at CafePress