Mitt Romney has to win New Hampshire. His own campaign has set those expectations. If he does not win New Hampshire it is game over for Mitt. Unfortunately for Mitt Romney, expectations have been set so high for him in New Hampshire, a win might not be enough if the win is close. And right now Newt Gingrich is surging in New Hampshire. He has gone up dramatically now within 14 points of Romney. Likewise, Huntsman is going up too. Both are cutting into the numbers of other candidates, including MItt Romney. If Newt Gingrich does as polls are suggesting in Iowa — a big win — he will have big momentum going into New Hampshire, but not just New Hampshire, South Carolina too. Winning two out of the first three races and then going to Florida where Newt is also ahead will pretty much destroy the inevitability argument Romney has had. In other words, Romney needs to stop Gingrich in Iowa. But about the only way to do that with one month to go is to unleash hell on Gingrich. That brings us to Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean. In 2004, Dean was surging and Gephardt had Iowa as a must win state. They went nuclear on each other, wiping each other out in Iowa. It opened the door to John Kerry’s campaign, which everyone had written off for dead and also John Edwards. It was a game changer that could happen again. The real irony here for Romney is that throughout the campaign season, all the candidates have been fighting each other while Romney has stayed safely above the fray letting the others either implode or slay each other. Now he is in the position of having to get his hands dirty against Gingrich while all the other candidates can just sit back and fight for the crumbs.
Read the original here:
Will Iowa Be the GOP’s Version of Gephardt vs. Dean?
[Update: I swear that I was going to leave this in diaries - but, given the agitation that it's sparked on my other site, I'm thinking that it really needs to be fronted after all. - ML] (HT: Hot Air Headlines ) Herman Cain will not even come close to winning Iowa. This is the takeaway passage from the article that Team Cain needs to read and address right now . Cain last visited Iowa on Oct. 22, and Tuel said the next time he expects the candidate back in the state is Nov. 19. Tuel also noted that plans are in the works for an early December bus tour through the state, much like the one Cain took ahead of the August Ames Straw Poll. Campaign sources said the tour might include a “mega town hall meeting,” with thousands in attendance. During a lunchtime visit this week to Cain’s headquarters, located in a shopping center in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale, reporters from ABC News found about a dozen volunteers telephoning potential supporters, many of them older Iowans. When ABC returned in the evening — a time when local campaign offices would usually be packed with an after-work crowd — only two volunteers remained in the office. They said that others were at home making placards for Friday night’s Iowa Republican Party Dinner, which Cain does not plan to attend. ABC News visited the same campaign headquarters last month and found the office quiet and empty. That passage represents a kindly ABC News writer/editor team – yes, they do exist – coming as close as they dare to frantically waving off the campaign while screaming “DANGER! DANGER, HERMAN CAIN!” Because you can talk about national campaigns and moneybombs and heck, even polling all you like: but if you’re not currently being forced to squeeze volunteers into your campaign offices any which way then you’re doing it wrong . Let me explain. In 2004, Howard Dean had money. Howard Dean had polls. Howard Dean had a national campaign going. What Howard Dean did not have was a functional Iowa organization designed to bring people to the precinct polling stations and keep them there for up to two hours, which is why he came in third place. And to forestall the immediate objection: in 2003 Dean supporters were more than happy to explain why the lack of a ground organization didn’t matter, too. Up to the the moment where Dean lost. Free advice for Team Cain: in that article Cain’s Iowa campaign manager says “Of course Mr. Cain cannot move to Iowa any more than he can move to New Hampshire or South Carolina, and he’s got a busy schedule.” I suggest that they convince the candidate to abandon that Of course and get him to Iowa for the next two months. Because if Cain loses Iowa at this point it is going to have an impact infinitely worse than if he had never been expected to win Iowa in the first place. Moe Lane ( crosspost ) PS: What? Oh, yes, the system is absurd. Particularly the expectations that Iowan voters have with regard to Presidential candidates. (pause) …And ?
Follow this link:
If this story is accurate, Herman Cain will not win Iowa.
Pretty please? (Politico) — Progressive disgruntlement with elements of President Obama’s governance, and with his principled fondness for compromise, has not at any point seemed on the verge of a serious primary challenge, and the most serious potential challengers — Howard Dean and Russ Feingold — have ruled it out. But a New York reader
Visit link:
NYC: Manhattan’s Ultra-Liberal Upper West Side Looking To Draft a Challenger Against “Wimpy” Obama…
Byron York: ” Black caucus: Tired of making excuses for Obama ” Howard Dean: ” Bush camp will ‘take Perry out’ ”
Follow this link:
Happy Hour: Tired of Making Excuses for Obama
Howard Dean: Bush Camp Will “Take Perry Out”
More here:
Howard Dean: Bush Camp Will “Take Perry Out”
