[Posted by Karl] Jim Geraghty (among others) , relying on Gallup , notes Pres. Obama’s job approval rating for 2011 is anemic in most swing states. Just as notable are Obama’s disapproval numbers in swing states, as they show an incumbent underwater, often with majority disapproval: IA (45.6/45.9); PA (45/47.8); VA (44.5/49); NC (43.7/48.5); FL (43.6/47.8); OH (42.1/50.2); NM (41.7/51.2); NV (41.3/50.6); CO (40.4/52.2); and NH (38.7/54.4). Geraghty adds that this does not necessary translate to votes which is true, but probably not good for Obama. In 2004 — a polarized, close election — Bush lost states where he had net positive job approval, but did not win one state where he had a net negative job approval. As Jay Cost notes, the only two years where we see a substantial amount of support for the incumbent president among disapprovers — 1972 and 1980 – are also not good news for Obama. National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar correctly reminds us the Gallup data is from “throughout 2011, reflecting as much the past year as the present,” while noting Obama’s national job approval hasn’t moved much this year. Where recent polls are available, they generally confirm Kraushaar’s hypothesis. I covered IA and NH earlier this month; those states are marginally better than Gallup, but they’re also less economically distressed than most (and Obama is still underwater in NH). In PA , recent polls have Obama at 45/50 and 40/49. In VA , it 48/47 and 42/51. In NC , it’s 47/49 or 50. In FL , it’s 44/49. In OH , it’s 44/51. In NV and NM , GS Strategies has Obama at 41/57.3 and 43.3/56.8 (the firm did not provide a complete breakdown of the sample, but the firm’s polls for FL, OH and VA are close to other public polls). In CO , Ciruli Associates (a local firm) had Obama at 39/53 in December 2011. The news is marginally better for Obama in January’s Purple Poll (.pdf), even though it spotlights FL (40/56). Obama is underwater in the Southern Swing states (FL, NC & VA) at 42/53 and the Rust Belt (NH, OH & PA) at 41/51. However, he’s above water in the Heartland (WI, MN & IA) at 48/47, and only marginally underwater in the Wild West (CO, NV & NM) at 47/49. That showing in the West is improved from the September poll; his numbers have not moved significantly in any of the other regions. I might trust that uptick, as I doubt it’s coincidence that Obama spent last week in Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Time is the candidate’s most valuable resource. Obama needs to spend his in states where he has the best odds of goosing his job approval rating to a net positive. –Karl
View post:
States of Disapproval
Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker , and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November. Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin. The facts: Tracking poll with a rolling average. 1,169 RVs. MoE 4. Since Gallup started its tracking poll, Gingrich has slid from 37 to 23, but Romney now has hit a new high, 27, to take his four point lead. Rick Santorum is nowhere to be seen. What happens in Iowa, stays in Iowa. Of course, after Iowa and New Hampshire, I think we all expect the race to consolidate. and Romney could be surpassed. It seems improbable, but it isn’t wrong to say Mitt Romney could become the first Republican non-incumbent to win Iowa and New Hampshire, but also be the first to win both states but not win the nomination. Crossposted from Unlikely Voter
More here:
Romney makes a breakthrough
Surprised? Me neither. (CNSNews.com) — Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia is leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race by 20 points — 41 percent to 21 percent — among self-professed conservatives, according to a new Gallup poll released Thursday. By contrast, Romney is leading Gingrich by 10 points —
Go here to read the rest:
Gallup: Gingrich Leads Romney By 20 Points Among Conservatives, Romney Leads Gingrich By 10 Among Liberals, Moderates…
Via The Hill: President Obama’s job approval rating has ticked down to 41 percent in Gallup’s latest daily tracking poll, with his disapproval at 51 percent. It’s a drop from where the president stood at the beginning of December, and reflects the widest gap between the president’s approval and disapproval numbers in Gallup’s polling in
Follow this link:
Gallup: Obama Disapproval Rating Back To 51%…
Well deserved. Via Gallup: 2011 Decline in Approval Steepest Among Core Independents Obama’s approval rating has decreased among all six partisan/ideology groups Gallup tracks on a regular basis since January, but it has dropped the most — 10 percentage points, from 40% to 30% — among pure independents. These are the roughly 14% of national
See more here:
Gallup Poll: Obama’s Approval Rating Among Independent Voters Plummets To 30%…
