According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn’t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night. Not one poll projected Ron Paul to drop to third, and PPP stuck to Paul being in first. I said those polls weren’t predictive. They weren’t. I was right. I went out on the limb. It would have been easy to hedge when every poll out there disagreed with me, but I didn’t. Even when I got a wave of critical commenters via Drudge Report and the Atlantic , most telling me I was completely wrong, and that there in fact would be a surge of voters, I stuck to my guns. I denied there would be a big surge from the record 2008 turnout , and in fact turnout was at about 120,000, roughly the same as the 119,118 of last time. I kept saying it even on caucus day . The results? PPP projected Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18. Opposite order. Wrong. I said I “debunked” PPP, and the polls were indeed bunk. InsiderAdvantage. Des Moines Register. Rasmussen Reports. NBS News/Marist. CNN/Time. Every one of them had Ron Paul in second place, down by only 1, 2, 1, 2, and 3 respectively. This was consensus in the turnout models, which I rejected to the end . The final result was Mitt Romney 25%, Rick Santorum 25%, and Ron Paul 21%. Not one pollster had Paul in third, four off the lead. They had him +1, -1, -1, -2, -2, and -3, in first or second place. This was a total poll failure, and I took a lot of heat for saying they were all wrong. But I called it. Was I sweating every minute Tuesday evening when the early counts had Paul ahead? Of course I was. But, in the end, there was no massive, unprecedented influx of independents and Democrats backing Ron Paul. There was no turnout doubling 2008′s record turnout. Ron Paul lost, and he finished in third. If this happened by random chance, one would have thought at least one pollster would have had Santorum in second. At least one of the errors should have had Ron Paul with an even bigger deficit than four. No, if they were random errors, they had a 50/50 chance of being larger or smaller than the actual deficit. For six polls to all go the same way had only a 1.5% chance of occurring. Even worse when you consider IA and PPP had Paul tied or in the lead in previous polls as well. Eight polls all with a smaller deficit only happens by chance 0.4% of the time. This wasn’t random. The polling of Iowa was systemically wrong. Polling is a useful science, but caveat (e)lector. Do sanity checks. Then you won’t be part of the herd running off the cliff, as happened with Iowa polling this year. Crossposted from Unlikely Voter
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I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa
There’s so much nagative (un)employment news today. You decide where to start: Jobless Claims Top 400,ooo Again 26 Million Underemployed Misery Index Highest since 1983 Sharp Drop in Standard of Living Use of Anti-Depressants Zooms Hat tip: CNBC, Business Insider, USA Today and Drudge Report
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Financial Meltown: Pick Your News
Director of Homeland Security Janet “Big Sis” Napolitano has a bone to pick with Drudge Report founder Matt Drudge about privacy fears apparently stoked on his news site. That said, she has mixed feelings about her Orwellian nickname. In fact, she kind of likes it. In an interview with Politico.com , the DHS Chief completely dismissed notions that her branch of the federal government tramples on civil liberties. On the contrary, Napolitano said: “I think that what he means is we are watching too much—kind of an Orwellian view. He’s just wrong. I mean, he’s just wrong. We want to be conscious of civil liberties and civil rights protections—and we are, we don’t do anything without kind of running it through our own civil rights and privacy office. We’re one of only two departments in the federal government that actually has a presidentially-appointed privacy office and officer.” For many, the self-licking ice cream cone of an internal DHS civil rights office may not inspire a huge vote of confidence. One could even process the secretary’s answer in this way: Of course the organization that has brought us ” enhanced screening procedures “ would need some sort of privacy, otherwise who would get re-assigned after all the federal lawsuits? Matt Drudge But the Secretary is sticking to her guns, so to speak, and claimed that the full body airport scanners are becoming even more respectful of privacy. Instead of showing a full, naked body image, the new iteration of the scanners will apparently show a stick figure with a region of the body that requires further scrutiny (perhaps with an enhanced pat-down). The head of Homeland Security also defended the proliferation of surveillance cameras across the country, claiming they are a “very, very helpful methodology, particularly in areas where we know there are constant threats.” As for being called “Big Sis,” Napolitano said getting your own nickname is an honor of sorts. She claimed that she may have a nickname for Matt Drudge , but decided not to share it. And the good news? According to Politico, Napolitano said you may not have to take your shoes off much longer at the airport. But that bottle of shampoo you left in your carry-on will be confiscated for the foreseeable future. (h/t Politico ) Read more from the original source: ‘Big Sis’ Napolitano Says Drudge Report ‘Just Wrong’ on Privacy Fears
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‘Big Sis’ Napolitano Says Drudge Report ‘Just Wrong’ on Privacy Fears
Police looking into Anthony Weiner’s texts with 17 year old girl. Surprise: Pelosi no longer seems to want Weiner to resign. Rush questions why GOP women hate Sarah Palin while liberal women are circling the wagons around Weiner. Hat tips: Fox News, Drudge Report and EIB Network
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At Today’s Weiner Roast
There is so much bad news on the Drudge Report today that I honestly don’t know where to begin. You make the call: Debt Passes $14.4 Trillion for First Time GM Is $11 Billion Loss for Taxpayers Oil Prices Soaring Today Obama Gives Libyan Rebels $25 Million China Urges U.S. To Protect Creditors Texas Burning Border to Border But, here’s some good news:
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Pick Your News
